The 2024 Conservative conference begins this weekend and it will be historic for several reasons. It will be the first time since 2005 that the gathering shall be used as a platform to hear from candidates in the party’s leadership election. It looks as though attendance will be very low, both from the corporate world, and from the public affairs and public relations sectors. And it will be the first time since 1997 that such an event will be held after a bruising general election defeat.
We all know why the party stands in this position. But what should the leadership candidates say and what must they do to get the Conservatives out?
Firstly, it is important to show that whilst a Conservative government was able to govern effectively for 14 years, the new leader must show that the party is capable of being a strong Opposition to the Starmer Frontbench. That means being united and not indulging in factional infighting. It means not being reactive to Labour policy but proactive in creating exciting pledges that can command popular public support. And it means learning from the mistakes of Labour in Opposition, and charting a path back to power – that involves the new leader remaining principled in their beliefs and providing voters with a reason to vote for the Conservatives, not just to vote against Labour.
Secondly, in order to win the party faithful, the new leader has to make an impression. They have a short window of opportunity – two weeks – to do so. We have learnt painful lessons from the 49 day Truss premiership, and even the 784 day leadership of Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP, that when a new leader fails to make a meaningful impact (whether that is by reassuring business and donors, growing the party membership, or remaining steadfast in their vision) they put themself in a deeply vulnerable position – one that opens opportunities for challenges and undermining, intra-party divisions, and a loss in public confidence.
Thirdly, whilst it is important for the new leader to strive for the keys to 10 Downing Street, there will not be an election for another five years. The Conservatives cannot spend the duration of this time looking at a post 2029 general election world, but they must focus on the task at hand. The new leader must present party members with a vision for Opposition – it has been short-term thinking that has seen the Conservative brand tainted, and is a factor in the rise of Reform UK. Re-establishing the party as the leading right-wing force in British politics will not take place after one speech, or because its leader has changed, but will be an incremental process of proving themself and the party in Opposition. Once the new leader has done this and displayed a vision for winning, then it is a much easier case to govern again.
Fourth, the new leader must provide a roadmap to repairing a tattered and broken party machine. Disenchantment at a resoundingly unpopular selection process ahead of July’s vote, the alienation of Blue and Red Wall Conservatives, and the leaking support from business means the party is deeply vulnerable – both in terms of finance and morale. Dilapidated and unfit for purpose, the new party leader will have a short time frame between now and the 2025 local elections to turn this around, re-secure corporate and donor support, provide unique incentives to be a party member and volunteer, and show that they are capable of engaging with voters across the Conservative spectrum all at once.
Finally, you cannot be a successful party without healthy finances. The new leader needs to re-attract small donors to invest in the cause, whilst also making the case as to why businesses can feel reassured supporting Conservative policies in regards to trade, investment, and economic growth. If, as a party, we are to begin thinking about winning back seats such as Surrey Heath, Boston and Skegness, or Bury St. Edmunds, talk can only get us so far – the new leader must encourage participation and stoke a desire to engage – this comes through ensuring that those who donate (regardless of the sum) see a return on their investment – perhaps through a more participatory process by which our party platform is determined.
The opportunities for the new leader – whoever she or he might be – are manifest and diverse. If they are sincere in their desire for a promotion in five years time then they must realise that the damage within the party is deep and that any quick fix or hollow rhetoric will see the party fall further – this is a risk that is too great to take. The work to win the 2029 general election must start now.